A System Dynamics Model for the Environmental Management of the Sepetiba Bay Watershed, Brazil

Abstract

In the recent past, the Sepetiba Bay watershed, located in the Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil has experienced rapid industrial development and population growth, as well as an increase in water pollution and environmental degradation. To analyze the complex interrelationships among the agents affecting the Sepetibza Bay environment, a system dynamics model was developed. The model builds on extensive studies conducted for the watershed, and simulates different hypotheses of economic growth and of demographic expansion. Thus, it can be used as a decision support tool for the identification of investment priorities and policy analyses under various scenarios. In order to provide a comprehensive approach to the environmental management of the Sepetiba Bay watershed, the model had to consider only the most relevant aspects of the behavior and the key interactions among agents operating in the watershed. In this article, the model’s structure is presented together with some of its main results.